Author：Odaily 星球日报

Public issues cannot form a moat for emerging prediction markets.

Competition in the prediction market is quietly changing.

In the early stages of predicting market development, competition revolves more around "underlying capabilities".Whoever is more compliant, whoever gains regulatory approval, and whoever possesses deeper liquidity and a more efficient market-making structure will determine who can establish market trust first.Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi build their markets around macro-politics and major global events, gradually establishing a clear cognitive advantage and user mindshare within the American context.

However, macro-level events are not inherently exclusive. Presidential elections, government shutdowns, and the course of wars—these issues naturally possess a public nature, and any platform can create a similar market. Early entrants rely on the accumulation of time and liquidity, not the exclusivity of the content itself. For latecomers, repeatedly competing on the same issues only leads to a game played on a foundation of poorer liquidity and weaker trust, making it difficult to truly create structural differentiation.

For emerging prediction markets on BNB Chain, if rule design cannot create barriers to entry, then content structure and cultural positioning may become new competitive variables. It is precisely at this stage that..."Fan culture" is starting to become important.

Fan culture and exclusive content supply

When a prediction market platform designs events around a specific ecosystem, person, or community hotspot, it no longer provides public issues for everyone, but rather content embedded in a certain circle's context.Predictions offered by predict.fun around the dynamics of the Binance ecosystem, such as "Will the SAFU fund wallet balance change?" or "How many articles CZ has posted on the X platform in a week?", are essentially closer to the daily discussion rhythm of the crypto community. They may not have macro-level significance, but they are often at the center of the community's emotions.

This logic becomes even more apparent when applied to a more typical Asian fandom setting. For example, the appeal of topics like whether G-Dragon's tour will have additional shows added, whether Bai Lu will appear at a brand launch event, or whether Faker will win another championship before retiring, doesn't stem from global attention, but rather from the high-density discussions within the fandom itself. These aren't public issues, but rather focal points of intense emotional engagement.

Fan culture provides a different kind of motivation mechanism here. When a community pays close attention to a certain issue, participation itself becomes a way of expressing an attitude.Betting is no longer just about probability judgment, but about participating in the narrative.Compared to macro markets, which require extensive information analysis, these kinds of topics are easier for people to participate in directly and are more likely to generate actual trading and discussion in the early stages.

The true value of fan culture lies not in the emotions themselves, but in how these emotions, once concentrated, naturally translate into participation. The more intensive the discussion, the more active the transactions, and the more the topic itself is amplified.

This may be the biggest difference between emerging prediction markets and leading platforms. The former relies on sustained activity within their own circles, while the latter relies on the scale advantage of macro-level topics. The paths are different, and so are the logics.

From dissemination efficiency to cultural barriers

Prediction markets are essentially discussion-driven products. Without discussion, there is no price discovery; without discussion, sustained participation is difficult to achieve.The activity level of a platform largely depends on whether a topic can be repeatedly spread and amplified.

Discussions on macro-level issues typically revolve around data and analysis, proceeding at a relatively restrained pace and following a more rational trajectory. However, topics revolving around community figures or controversies naturally possess stronger social attributes. Clashing viewpoints, camp-based expressions, and emotional engagement make them more likely to spread rapidly within social media and communities. In this structure, prediction markets become more than just trading tools; they become nodes where topics escalate.

For emerging forecasting platforms, dissemination efficiency itself is a growth lever.A market designed around community controversies is often more likely to create a closed-loop discussion than a macroeconomic event. Participation, forwarding, commenting, and further participation create a cyclical reinforcement; the higher the emotional density, the more concentrated the trading behavior. What fan culture brings is not just popularity, but a sustainable frequency of interaction.

More importantly, when such interactions occur consistently within the same community context, the advantages of dissemination gradually solidify into cultural bonds. Currently, popular prediction market platforms on BNB Chain, such as Opinion, predict.fun, and Probable, exemplify this. Its core users are primarily from the Asian community. This concentrated user base naturally embeds the platform within a specific discussion environment and emotional landscape.

Under these conditions, prediction markets are no longer just a substitute trading tool, but are gradually becoming an integral part of the community's operation. Macro markets can be replicated, but the interaction patterns built on specific cultural contexts are difficult to transplant.The fan culture brings not only short-term activity, but also an emotional environment that is more difficult for external platforms to replicate.

Asian Paths under Cultural Divergence

Prediction markets are not an industry where technology alone can differentiate companies.What truly determines the direction of a platform is its content selection and the cultural environment it is associated with.

Liquidity depth, product experience, and the number of events are certainly important, but these are more like entry barriers than entry points. For emerging platforms, simply copying popular events from Polymarket or Kalshi is unlikely to shake their established scale and mental advantages.

A number of emerging prediction market platforms have core users who come from Asian communities.Different user structures determine different content logics.Compared to macro-political issues, the Asian crypto community places greater emphasis on character narratives, ecosystem dynamics, and community interactions. In this context, designing around community hot topics is more relevant than replicating public issues.

The importance of fan culture lies not in its emotional nature, but in its natural fit with this user structure. It lowers the barrier to entry, increases dissemination efficiency, and quickly activates real-world transactions. More importantly, this cultural environment is difficult to replicate simply.Once a platform becomes bound to a specific community, the content is no longer just an event, but a continuously operating narrative space.

As the market for predictions enters a phase of cultural competition, the direction of a platform will no longer be determined solely by its mechanism design, but rather by the depth of its understanding of its own user structure. Those who better understand their own community are more likely to secure a foothold in a fragmented landscape.

This may be where the real opportunity lies in emerging prediction markets.

Author | Asher