A trader on the decentralized, crypto-oriented prediction platform Polymarket has managed to generate approximately $100,000 in profit on the same day they joined, showing how short-term mispricing can drive outsized returns.

Going by hai15617, the trader placed ten predictions shortly after registering on January 14. While several of those positions resulted in losses, one bet on Bitcoin (BTC) produced a profit of $99,779, with an 887% return. 

The gain was more than enough to offset the previous losses, leaving the trader with approximately $92,300 in overall net profit at the time. One day later, on January 15, their total winnings climbed past $235,000.

Are short-term Bitcoin bets the most profitable strategy on Polymarket?

Notably, hai15617’s strategy did not rely on forecasting the long-term direction of Bitcoin or the broader crypto market. Instead, it focused on identifying extreme mispricings in short-duration prediction markets.

That is, the trader deployed large bets when odds temporarily diverged from perceived fair value. For instance, the position alluded to in the introduction boiled down to an approximately $11,000 bet that Bitcoin would go down to a range the community gave 10% odds of happening.

The success underscores both how risky and how dynamic prediction markets can be in that profitability can depend more on exploiting pricing errors than on maintaining a high win rate. In other words, even multiple losing trades can be balanced out with a single correctly timed position if the odds and prices swing sharply out of balance.

Likewise, hai15617’s approach highlights how a more focused or niche strategy can prove quite lucrative if executed properly, which is something Polymarket users have also noticed with, for example, sports bets.

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