Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, lowered his forecast for the passage of the U.S. Clarity Act in 2026 from 75% to 60%. He believes the biggest obstacle is no longer political support, but rather the shrinking time available to the Senate to advance the bill.
Senate agenda squeeze time
Thorn indicated that the Senate's upcoming agenda is likely to be dominated by FISA-related matters. The previous authorization vote failed to proceed smoothly, leading to a more congested legislative schedule. Meanwhile, Congress is also dealing with other priorities, thus reducing the time available for the crypto market structure bill.
He also mentioned that disagreements surrounding the rules of ethics for legislators and anti-illegal financing provisions remain unresolved, which complicates the bill's progress.
The core issue lies in defining regulatory authority.
The Clarity Act is considered one of the most closely watched crypto market structure bills in Washington. Its core content is to further clarify the regulatory boundaries between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regarding digital assets.
According to the proposed framework, digital assets classified as commodities will be primarily regulated by the CFTC; those classified as securities will continue to be governed by the SEC. This distinction will directly impact token issuance methods, trading platform operating models, and the compliance requirements that projects must meet.
The target for July 4th has changed.
Despite lowering his forecast for the bill's passage, Thorn remains relatively optimistic about its ultimate prospects. However, he points out that the legislative window is becoming more sensitive, and market expectations could adjust rapidly should the Senate schedule continue to change.
Previously, U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis had set July 4 as a target date for advancing market structure legislation in the Senate. Now, this timeline appears to face greater uncertainty.
